The following videos are the two parts of a debate on the France 24 Arabic channel on the cost of the war on Syria and the neighbouring countries.

Jihad Yazigi, the editor-in-chief of The Syria Report, takes part in the debate.

Part 1 (15 minutes)

Part 2 (24 minutes)

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A weekly selection of articles on Syria.

Iraqis see fake Syrian passport as golden ticket to Europe: “Iraqis are buying forged Syrian passports to try to increase their chances of winning asylum in European countries.”

Without education, Syria’s children will be a lost generation: “Double-shift’ schools in Lebanon have shown it can be done. It is imperative that money is found to give all young refugees the hope that education provides.”

India treads cautiously on Syria as foreign minister visits Delhi: “While Syria is not a major source of oil for India, the country has two significant investments in Syria’s petroleum sector – one is a state-owned firm to explore an oil block in nothern Syria, the other a stake in the Al Furat Petroleum Company.”

Fire and Oil: The Collateral Environmental Damage of Airstrikes on ISIS Oil Facilities: “Current claims by the Russian Ministry of Defense are that they have damaged 32 oil refining complexes, 11 oil refineries, and 23 oil pumping stations, while destroying 1,080 oil tankers. When amateur observers sought out targets in one Ministry of Defense video, however, they found grain silos instead of the claimed oil storage site (perhaps in line with an effort by the Assad regime to starve out the opposition).”

Why Are Syrian Aid Workers Leaving for Europe?: “The laws of the neighboring countries these organizations are based in do not make matters easy. Even Turkey, which had long been considered more lenient than Lebanon and Jordan in its policies towards refugees, introduced new visa restrictions last week.”

‘If UN positions on Syria border fall to radicals, Israel will have to respond’: “In INSS research paper, former senior officer from IDF’s Planning Directorate warns of challenges to UNDOF in North.”

70,000 students out of school as ‘Russian bombardment’ prompts Idlib closures: “An announcement by the opposition Idlib Education Directorate cited “Russian bombardments” for the decision to temporarily close schools in the rebel-held province, a precautionary move set to impact “more than 70,000 students.”

‘Traders of Death’: Exploiting Starvation in Madaya: “Residents in the government-besieged town of Madaya are starving. Many have resorted to eating leaves, insects and pets to feed themselves. Some are now also accusing army officers and traders who have sneaked much-needed food past the blockade of capitalizing on the desperation of the hungry.”

More than a million Syrians under siege ‘at risk of starvation’: “52 areas blockaded, almost all by regime troops, new figures suggest, as UN warns using food as a weapon is a ‘war crime’.”

Madaya’s case unprecedented in Syria war: U.N.: “The suffering in the Syrian town of Madaya is the worst seen in the country’s civil war, the United Nations said Tuesday, a day after delivering aid to the area besieged for months.”

The Underground Route Out of Besieged Ghouta: “While residents in Madaya may have no way out, other areas under government siege are finding creative ways to carry on. In Eastern Ghouta, a well-known rebel-held area in rural Damascus, rebel groups are allowing residents to access their network of tunnels to escape or to get provisions.”

Breaking the Siege: Q&A with The Syria Campaign: “Hundreds of thousands of people are living under siege in Syria, where starvation is being used as a weapon of war. Syria Deeply spoke with James Sadri, director of The Syria Campaign, to learn more about the prevalence of siege tactics in Syria, the perpetrators, and the charges of U.N. failure to help end the sieges.”

Syrians Petition Turkey’s New Visa Entry Restrictions: “Protestors campaign against new visa regulations for Syrians entering Turkey.”

The most unconventional weapon in Syria: Wheat: “Strategically, bread is as important as oil or water. Civilians are dependent on the authority that distributes it, and profiteers are eager to resell it to hungry people at grotesque prices. “When you control bread and fuel,” says a Syrian analyst from Damascus who spoke on the condition of anonymity, “you control the whole society.”

Switzerland joins Denmark in seizing assets from refugees to cover costs: “Information sheet given to Syrian refugee shows seizure of assets over a limit of 1,000 Swiss francs, says Swiss news programme.”

Syria’s ‘surrender or starve’ sieges prolonged for profit: “Trapped civilians ripe for exploitation by all sides in civil war.”

Our weekly selection of articles on Syria.

Weaponizing Syria’s Water: “In the deadlocked fight between the regime and insurgents, Ain al-Fijah represents a kind of nuclear option: cutting its flow parches Assad’s stronghold, but the cost to civilians—and the rebel cause—can be huge.”

In snow-covered northern town, freezing residents ‘living in the Stone Age’: “In order to keep warm in north Aleppo, exorbitant diesel and electricity prices limit one’s options, Abu Hussein, 28, a resident of Azaz, tells Syria Direct’s Osama Abu Zeid. Even firewood isn’t cheap, particularly since “you need 20 kilos of it a day” just for heating.”

Frost destroys crops for 250,000 blockaded northern Homs residents: “Unable to import food from surrounding areas, northern Homs residents depend on locally grown produce. These days, that mostly means potatoes, cabbages, onions and some tomatoes. Other local crops include eggplants, fruits and nuts.”

Safe Zones and Assurances: “Nothing good can happen in Syria with civilians on the bullseye. Getting them off is not cartographic work. It does not require remote-control manipulation of Syrian sects and ethnicities. It is not a matter of assurances for those fully complicit in war crimes. That which is required is relentless diplomacy backed by the credible threat of force.”

A Peace Plan for Syria: “The proposal calls for deferring a comprehensive political solution and resolution of the Assad question and focusing instead on a ceasefire backed by international enforcement, regional devolution of power, humanitarian assistance, and a longer-term political process.”

In Turkey’s borderlands, Syrians show refugees’ economic potential: “His firm is one of nearly 2,000 set up by Syrians in Turkey in the almost five years since their homeland descended into civil war.”

Amnesty: Famine in Syrian city of Madaya ‘the tip of an iceberg’: “Even more chilling is the idea that Madaya may not be the exception in Syria today, after nearly five years of civil war: It might be representative of an ongoing catastrophe of larger proportions.”

Russian bombing in Syria ‘fuels refugee crisis’ says US official as airstrike kills 39: “Only a third of 5,000 Russian airstrikes directed against Isis.”

RT pays visit to oilfield recaptured by Kurds from ISIS : “Rich in oil the Syrian Kurds may be, but they have no one to sell it to!”

400 Syrians Stranded at Beirut Airport Following Turkish Visa Revisions: “Ankara’s recent decision to prevent Syrians from entering Turkey without visa leaves hundreds grounded in Beirut.”

Syria PM Calls for Increased Trade with India: “Prime minister says Syrian government hopes to expand trade with India to alleviate the impacts of economic sanctions and war.”

Iran, Syria Look to Bypass Obstacles to Health Sector Cooperation: “Representatives meet to formulate strategy on fulfilling complicated bilateral health sector deals.”

Female Activists Tackle East Ghouta’s Education Crisis: “Have the Right to Learn campaign aims to help thousands of children without access to education in the eastern suburbs of Damascus.”

No jeans, no cigarettes on the bus from Beirut to Raqqa: “Syrian refugees talk about their ordeal as they travel back home to see their families in ISIL-held territory.”

The Refugee Band Touring Europe: “They fled to Lebanon, Turkey, Greece, Serbia, and Germany, turning their nation’s tragedy, and their own, into a rock and roll epic.”

Iran’s failed cultural diplomacy in Syria: “Nadia von Maltzahn has researched decades-long efforts by Iran and Syria to improve their countries’ cultural relations. Gareth Smyth asks her what went wrong.”

Isis ‘ran sophisticated immigration operation’ on Turkey-Syria border: “Passenger manifests seized by Kurdish forces at Tel Abyad have same stamp marks as other Isis documents the Guardian has been able to verify.”

The following text is the contribution of the editor of The Syria Report, Jihad Yazigi, to a survey of four experts on the state of the Syrian economy conducted by the Syria in Crisis page of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

YAZIGI: EXPECT WORSE IN 2016

The continuing deterioration of the Syrian economy witnessed in the past four and a half years will accelerate in 2016.

Fundamentally, the Syrian economy suffers from several curses: the destruction of the country’s physical infrastructure and productive capacity; the outflow of financial and human capital; the fragmentation of the territory and the disruption of trade and other business networks; the collapse of state institutions and services in areas outside regime control; and Western sanctions.

Provided the war goes on, these factors will continue to weigh on the economic situation.

Business sectors that had survived relatively well until now, such as agricultural production, had a dismal year. The fragmentation of the country has increased transport costs to such an extent that importing wheat from the Black Sea is now cheaper than buying it from Hasakah and carrying it to Damascus.

The value of the dollar, one of the most closely followed indicators, almost doubled from 215 pounds at the beginning of 2015 to 390 by early December. The supply of foreign currencies in the market remains structurally well below demand and there are no obvious limits as to how low the Syrian currency can fall in the coming months.

One positive aspect for the government has been its capacity, despite low fiscal revenues, to pay salaries and maintain the functioning of basic services. This was due to the implementation of new taxes, the reduction of subsidies on essential goods such as heating oil and bread, and aid from its allies.

This has been, however, at the expense of the population, an overwhelming number of which now live under the poverty line. The attacks by the international coalition on Islamic State-controlled oil fields are already making matters worse: electricity blackouts and shortages of oil products in the market have increased, which will only push inflation higher in the coming weeks.

Year 2016 will see Syrians poorer, living a more miserable life, and emigrating in higher numbers.

To read all the other contributions to this debate please visit this page

Our weekly roundup of articles on Syria.

Burying Heads in Geneva Sands: “Without Dismantling the Sectarian Crux of Assad’s Rule, Syria Peace Talks Are Unlikely to Usher in Stability.”

Yes, Denmark really wants to strip refugees of jewellery: “It’s not a hoax: the Danish government really is legislating to search refugees and confiscate jewellery and other valuables.”

Syrian refugees in Turkey ‘to rise to 3 million’: “Syrian refugees in Turkey may exceed three million in the near future, while employment conditions may further deteriorate, said a report jointly prepared by Turkey’s top employer body and academics.”

Syria civil war: UN taking control of country ‘could provide solution to conflict’: “Former international relief adviser makes call for a new international consensus on the war-torn country.”

ISIL Sells Its Oil, But Who Is Buying It?: “The group hasn’t only recruited suicide bombers, it has also drawn technicians and engineers to manage oil fields under its control.”

Press Availability with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

Written evidence from The Southern Front of The Free Syrian Army to the UK Parliament

Riyadh, Rumeilan, and Damascus: All You Need to Know About Syria’s Opposition Conferences: “It’s conference time in the Syrian opposition. All of a sudden, three rival meetings have kicked off, all claiming to represent the opposition to President Bashar al-Assad.”

Syria’s Opposition Conferences: Results and Expectations: “Now they’re all done—three conferences for three sets of self-proclaimed representatives of the Syrian opposition.”

How Syrian opposition bypasses Assad’s communication blocks: “In the opposition-controlled regions of Syria, activists have established monitoring observatories to track the regime’s movements and coordinate military and humanitarian action.”

Syria Cancels Mutual Visa Waiver Agreement with Turkey: “Decision follows Ankara’s decision to unilaterally revoke the 2009 mutual visa exemption agreement between the two countries.”

Damascus Welcomes First Banking and Insurance Conference: “Finance minister hails efforts by banking and insurance companies to restore confidence in the Syrian economy despite difficult challenges.”

Cabinet Discusses Options for New Export Markets: “Prime minister stresses need to find new markets in friendly countries for exporting Syrian products.”

CBS: Indicators Suggest Exchange Rate Will Drop: “Central bank chief says achievements being made by the Syrian army will likely have a positively impact on the exchange rate.”

The Aleppo Project: Imaging Reconstruction Amid War: “A collaborative project between academics and the general public is conducting surveys within Syria and among the growing refugee population to get a sense of how Aleppians envision postwar reconstruction in the city hardest hit by the five-year civil war.”

Poverty Pushing War Widows Toward Foreign Fighters: “Driven from their homes by fighting, often with children to care for and with no husband to provide protection, women bereaved by the civil war have severely limited choices in seeking security – especially when local tradition means that many Syrian men are opposed to marrying widows.”

Fear of Checkpoints Spreads in Damascus: “As the war in Syria continues, residents in Damascus say more and more young men are being detained at government checkpoints throughout the capital, in what some fear may be part of a campaign to replenish Bashar al-Assad’s diminished fighting force.”

The most unconventional weapon in Syria: Wheat: “Strategically, bread is as important as oil or water. Civilians are dependent on the authority that distributes it, and profiteers are eager to resell it to hungry people at grotesque prices. “When you control bread and fuel,” says a Syrian analyst from Damascus who spoke on the condition of anonymity, “you control the whole society.”

Online Identification of Conflict Related Environmental Damage: “In November 2015, PAX released the report Amidst the debris…, which provides a snapshot of the environmental hazards associated with the Syrian conflict.”

Syria’s Bombed Water Infrastructure: An OSINT Inquiry: “Water is playing an increasingly important role in the Syrian Civil War. November 2015 witnessed at least two attacks on water facilities in the Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor Governorates.”

Our latest selection of articles on Syria’s economy and society.

Trapped Deir e-Zor city residents living on ‘a cup of rice, boiled wheat and water’: “The average family meal in Deir e-Zor consists of a cup of rice, boiled wheat and water.”

Ethnic Cleansing Threatens Syria’s Unity: “The escalating conflict remains a sectarian war, and deliberate ethnic cleansing by various actors is drawing new internal borders that will be difficult to erase.”

Syrian visitors in Saudi Arabia to get temporary work permits: “Syrians staying in Saudi Arabia on visit visa may soon be granted temporary work permits to take jobs at the private sector.”

‘Syria is dead, Israel must prepare,’ top defense official warns: “Amos Gilad says Bashar Assad’s grip on his country is failing and it has become ‘a land without rule.’”

Russia strikes vital Aleppo water treatment plant: “‘The sight of water flowing from a faucet has become almost like a dream’”

For Money or Liberty?: “The Political Economy of Military Desertion and Rebel Recruitment in the Syrian Civil War.”

Saving Syria’s Lost Generation: “But for the majority of Syrian refugee children residing in Lebanon, education is a distant dream. In 2014-2015, only 30,000 of the Syrian refugee children in Lebanon were enrolled in school.”

Unpaid Dowry en Vogue in Syria’s Besieged Areas: “Families in Syria’s besieged cities are requesting less of suitors as the impacts of war continue to deprive young men of access to money.”

The Syrian government has not received a single barrel of oil from DAISH: “Russian national, accused by Erdogan of involvement in oil supplies to Syria from IS, rejects accusations in interview with TASS.”

Italy busts Syria-linked olive oil scam: “Italy’s forestry police have uncovered a massive olive oil scam in Puglia, which involved the import of oils from Syria, Turkey, Morocco and Tunisia, which were tampered with before being sold as authentic Italian extra virgin olive oil.”

A roundup of articles published in the international press on Syria’s economy and society.

Futures unclear, Syrian refugees in Lebanon start family planning: “In much of the Middle East, large families are seen as a blessing from God, and contraception is regarded with scepticism or outright hostility.”

Syria’s Wheat Fields Are Being Decimated by the War: “Intensified fighting in the northern regions of Syria—which are responsible for the majority of the nation’s wheat growth—will make it nearly impossible for the remaining farmers to access and maintain their wheat fields.”

Syria’s Speed Freaks, Jihad Junkies, and Captagon Cartels: “The chaos of the war against Bashar al-Assad is fueling the rise of a dangerous, new super-amphetamine across the Middle East.”

Russia’s Syria Intervention is Not All About Gas: “Russia’s involvement in Syria is less about protecting natural gas interests and more about prosaic strategic interests.”

Syrian Delegation Attends Omani Economic Forum in Muscat: “Representatives from both countries meet to discuss boosting of trade, investment, economic and industrial cooperation.”

Defending Syria Body Reviews Post-Crisis Reconstruction Projects: “Syria will focus on investing in citizens’ needs for food, energy and initiating the country’s reconstruction phase, says head of the Syrian Investment Agency.”

Turkey to Roll Out New ID Cards for Syrians: “Turkey issues new legistation giving Syrians the right to secure their legal status in the country for the first time.”

Damascenes Flock to Amara Market for Bargains as Consumer Prices Soar: “The small marketplace near the capital’s Old City provides Syrians with a range of essentials at low prices as an increasing number of residents face economic hardship.”

The Syrian Non Violent Movement: “An overview of the Syrian non violent actors and movement.”

ICRC works to avoid massive water crisis in Aleppo: “The ICRC and its local partner organizations are asking for help in publicizing a GPS-enabled map that gives users the ability to pinpoint themselves in relation to a network of restored water wells throughout the city.”

Draining ISIS’ Coffers: “Six analysts give their views on means to cripple ISIS’ revenue stream”

Shortages Force Aleppo Medical Centres to Close: “In Aleppo in northwest Syria, health centres have operated under dire conditions in the last four years, with little funding, the daily threat of aerial bombardment, and dangers posed by local armed groups.”

Health Reality in the Liberated Areas of Northern Aleppo – A report on the health situation in the opposition-held parts of the Aleppo province.

The multiple tragedies of Syria’s displaced women, and why the G20 needs to pay attention: “In Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq, one in four families, 145,000, are female headed.”

Syrian Entrepreneurship Day

Our weekly roundup of articles on Syria’s economy and society.

Why Now? The Syrian Refugee Flow to Europe: “Neighboring countries present dangers, privations, and complications not present in Europe, and after hearing about these problems or experiencing them firsthand, many desperate Syrians have decided to head for the continent.”

Amidst the debris: Environmental impact of conflict in Syria could be disastrous: “The ongoing conflict in Syria is likely to have a disastrous impact on the environment and public health, according to a new study published by PAX.”

Will Syrians Born in Turkey Receive Turkish Citizenship?: “According to Turkey’s Foreigners Act, Syrians are treated as a ‘special case’, and are therefore subject to specific conditions, an interim government official explains.”

Water Crisis Leaves Damascus Residents Thirsty: “Residents of the capital endure crippling water shortages, as well as high rates of jaundice and cholera.”

They freed a Syrian town from ISIS. Now they have to govern it: “Today, Tal Abyad is a tense and troubled place. Its new Kurdish masters are seeking to assert their control over a mixed town that, at least until recently, had an Arab majority — some of whom were not entirely unhappy to be governed by the Islamic State.”

In Damascus, Syrians express a surprising level of optimism: “Russia’s monthlong intervention on behalf of the government of President Bashar Assad has lifted the spirits of many government supporters in the area.”

Isis Inc: Syria’s ‘mafia-style’ gas deals with jihadis: “The need for energy drives Assad regime into a deadly game.”

State Kidnappings a Cash Cow for Assad, Amnesty says: “Amnesty International has accused the Syrian government of reaping major profits from a widespread and systematic practice of enforced disappearances.”

The Balkans, Asylum Seekers, Migrants and Refugees in Transit: “Once registered, Syrians with valid documents have permission to remain in the country for six months. Non-Syrian asylum seekers are given expulsion notices to leave the country within one month.”

Refugees and the Making of an Arab Regional Disorder: “The refugee tragedy is a symptom of a wider political crisis. Finding adequate solutions for the refugees and internally displaced populations is primarily a political imperative, but it is also a development challenge that is essential for political stabilization, societal reconciliation, and peace building.”

How have Gaziantep’s exports to war-torn Syria quadrupled since 2011?: “Between 2010 and 2015, the share of newly established Syrian-partnered firms among all new businesses has increased from less than 1 in 1,000 to roughly 1 in 40. “

The Industrial Area in Kafar Hamra: “The industrial areas in Hayyan and Kafar Hamra – located in the northern liberated areas in Syria – have almost entirely stopped operating.”

Russian involvement in Syria brings about another siege for Aleppo: “The second siege of Aleppo was more than the sad tale of a once-proud Syrian city.”

After 52-year ban, Syrian Kurds now taught Kurdish in schools: “Schools in Syrian regions controlled by the Kurdish PYD and its allies are for the first time teaching the Kurdish language, a practice prohibited under Baathist rule.”

Middle-class Frustration Fueled the Arab Spring: “Judging by economic data alone, the revolutions of the 2011 Arab Spring should have never happened.”